📉 Daily Market Recap – April 16, 2025: Red Day for the Bulls
Hello friends, and good evening.
Let’s get right into today’s market action—and it wasn’t pretty. If you were watching the QQQ today, you already know it was a rough ride. The tech-heavy ETF dropped a sharp 3%, breaking down from the inside bar we saw earlier this week. That small bar had hinted at indecision, but today’s move erased any doubt—sellers are in control.
🚨 High Volume, Heavy Selling
This wasn’t just a casual fade. Volume picked up significantly compared to the last couple of sessions, confirming that today’s sell-off had some serious weight behind it. Just a few sessions ago, bulls were looking for a breakout from the flag pattern—something that would take us back to higher levels. But the price action didn’t follow through. Instead, it reversed hard, telling us the buyers didn’t show up when it mattered.
Now, QQQ is down about 25% from its all-time high, and if you’re a medium to long-term investor, this could look like a buying opportunity. From that perspective, QQQ is currently on “sale” at an 18% discount, based on price action from the discount plot.
🕵️♂️ Price Speaks Louder Than News
Personally, I don’t chase the headlines. Everything that matters is baked into the chart. Green means go, red means stop—or at least proceed with caution. And right now? We’re deep in the red.
🏛️ SPY: Following the Same Script
SPY didn’t offer much comfort either. It mirrored QQQ’s weakness, pushing lower with similar volume spikes. We could be headed toward a lower low in the 520 range or possibly beneath that. With just a couple of days left in the trading week, the next few candles will be key. For now, cash is still king.
SPY is also trading at a 14–15% discount from its highs—not a bad setup for long-term positioning, but the short-term remains murky at best.
🧨 VIX on the Rise
The VIX, our good old fear gauge, is waking up. It’s moving higher, and if it pushes past the 27–28 level, that could trigger some short-term panic—or signal a potential contrarian bounce.
A higher VIX usually means more uncertainty and a potential shakeout, so keep an eye on it. If it spikes, we might get a temporary relief rally… or deeper drawdowns.
💸 10-Year Yield Watch
10-year bond yields are hovering around 4.3%. While that’s a solid level, we’ve seen some downside momentum over the past three sessions. If that trend continues, it might offer a bit of breathing room for equities—but don’t bet on it just yet. The bond market has been just as moody as the stock market lately.
₿ Bitcoin: Decision Time
Let’s wrap with Bitcoin, the ever-volatile tech-adjacent asset. Think of it as the proxy for risk sentiment, especially in tech. Recently, it flirted with a breakout above resistance but failed to hold. Now we’re back to sideways chop.
We’re watching a tight consolidation box here. A break above could mean bullish continuation. A break below might trigger another leg down. The next few candles could define Bitcoin’s near-term direction—so stay sharp.
📝 Final Thoughts
Today was not kind to the bulls. The charts are speaking loud and clear: risk-off is the current mood. That said, discounts across major indices are starting to get interesting for patient investors with a longer-term view.
If you’re holding cash on the sidelines, now’s the time to stay alert and watch price, not noise. We’ll let the candles lead the way.
Thanks for tuning in. Stay safe out there, and I’ll see you tomorrow.
