Hello friends,
Welcome back to another market update from AppleTree360! If you’re tuning in from our YouTube channel, thank you for being here — let’s dive into what the charts are revealing this week.
Is QQQ Losing Steam?
As of August 7th, we’re seeing some important signals on the QQQ (NASDAQ-100 ETF). The market has been in a solid uptrend for a while, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. But over the past few days, that strength has started to fade.
- We’ve seen heavy selling pressure, especially on July 31st and a notable gap down on August 1st.
- The increase in volume during these down days suggests the selling isn’t just noise.
- Despite this, QQQ has tried to recover over the last few sessions, showing some resilience.
The key level to watch is between $574 and $575. If the ETF can break through this resistance with strong volume, there’s a real chance the uptrend could resume — with potential to move toward the $600 to $610 range.
However, if the price fails to push higher, it could indicate short-term exhaustion and lead to a sideways or downward move.
Volatility is Waking Up
The VIX (Volatility Index) has been trending lower since mid-April, which typically aligns with a rising stock market. But now, we’re seeing early signs that volatility might be creeping back in.
- The VIX recently made a higher high — something we haven’t seen in a while.
- If the VIX breaks above the 21–22 level, it may signal an incoming correction or a shift in sentiment.
The VIX tends to move opposite to the market. When it rises, it often reflects investor fear or uncertainty — and that’s when big market moves can happen, often to the downside.
Seasonality Could Add Pressure
August and September are historically tricky months for the stock market:
- Trading volumes tend to decline.
- Investor sentiment often weakens.
- Many past market bottoms have occurred in September or October.
While this doesn’t guarantee a drop, it’s wise to stay cautious. The next couple of months may bring more sideways movement or even a pullback before any year-end rally begins.
Key Takeaways
- Watch QQQ around $575. A breakout could push the market higher, but hesitation at this level might indicate weakness.
- Keep an eye on the VIX. A rising volatility index often hints at short-term corrections or broader uncertainty.
- Be aware of seasonality. August and September can be slow or choppy, so position accordingly.
Thanks for reading. Stay tuned for more market updates, technical insights, and trend analysis.
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We’ll keep watching the charts so you can stay ahead of the curve.
