If you’ve been following us on YouTube or over on the blog, you already know we’ve been closely tracking the movement in gold ETFs—especially GLD—since April 22nd. Back then, we flagged a major red flag: a bearish engulfing candle on the chart, supported by higher trading volume. It signaled that institutional players might be stepping out of gold, and we warned it was time to consider exiting long positions.
Since that alert, the trend has been mostly downward. There was a brief bounce between May 1st and May 6th, but the underlying technical setup and global sentiment suggested that rally wouldn’t hold—and that’s exactly what played out. Trade tensions easing and a generally upbeat global sentiment have not been supportive of gold prices.
Fast forward to May 14th, and GLD has now broken below a key level: the low from May 1st at $295.32. This breakdown adds weight to the bearish outlook. We’re now eyeing a potential move down to the $275–280 range in the coming days or weeks.
Looking at gold futures, the picture is even clearer. With less noise from gaps (since futures trade nearly around the clock), the trend is smoother—and it aligns with what we’re seeing in GLD. A potential move down toward $3,000 in gold futures is on the table, suggesting a 4–6% downside in the medium term.
We first highlighted this shift back in April, and those who acted on that heads-up have likely locked in gains or avoided the recent slide.
What’s Next?
If GLD ETF reaches the $275 level, we might see some consolidation or a pause. However, if bearish momentum continues, the next stop could be around $265—though that move might take a few months to play out.
We’ll keep tracking the setup and post updates regularly. Until then, keep an eye on gold’s price action and be cautious on long positions.
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